Mauerwerk 0–1 Favoritner AC: Result & Stats

Mauerwerk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Favoritner AC

3/7/2025

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17Ostbahn-XI-Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mauerwerk46%

×Draw23%

Favoritner AC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MauerwerkExpected goals in this matchFavoritner AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.41

Mauerwerk

1.77

Favoritner AC

1.41

Mauerwerk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

1.52

creates per match

1.00

1.82

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Mauerwerk

1.52

Favoritner AC

1.00

allows per match

Mauerwerk

1.82

Favoritner AC

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mauerwerk+0.00on par

Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauerwerk ↓

Favoritner AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mauerwerk or draw

69%

Mauerwerk or Favoritner AC

77%

Draw or Favoritner AC

54%

Winning margin

Mauerwerk wins by 2+

25%

Favoritner AC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mauerwerk 1+ goals

83%

Mauerwerk 2+ goals

53%

Mauerwerk 3+ goals

26%

Favoritner AC 1+ goals

76%

Favoritner AC 2+ goals

41%

Favoritner AC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mauerwerk (draw refunded)

60%

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauerwerk at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.82 · 85 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauerwerk attack 1.52 + Favoritner AC defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Favoritner AC attack 1.00 + Mauerwerk defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mauerwerk scores more

46%

level

23%

Favoritner AC scores more

31%

Mauerwerk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mauerwerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff