Favoritner AC 1–1 Mauerwerk: Result & Stats

Favoritner AC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mauerwerk

7/28/2023

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 1FavAC - Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Favoritner AC45%

×Draw24%

Mauerwerk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Favoritner ACExpected goals in this matchMauerwerk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.38

Favoritner AC

1.70

Mauerwerk

1.38

Favoritner AC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 87 away

1.43

creates per match

1.21

1.54

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Favoritner AC

1.43

Mauerwerk

1.21

allows per match

Favoritner AC

1.54

Mauerwerk

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Mauerwerk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Favoritner AC ↓

Mauerwerk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Favoritner AC or draw

69%

Favoritner AC or Mauerwerk

76%

Draw or Mauerwerk

55%

Winning margin

Favoritner AC wins by 2+

24%

Mauerwerk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Favoritner AC 1+ goals

82%

Favoritner AC 2+ goals

51%

Favoritner AC 3+ goals

24%

Mauerwerk 1+ goals

75%

Mauerwerk 2+ goals

40%

Mauerwerk 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Favoritner AC (draw refunded)

59%

Mauerwerk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Favoritner AC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 46 matches

Mauerwerk away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Favoritner AC attack 1.43 + Mauerwerk defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.70

Mauerwerk attack 1.21 + Favoritner AC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Favoritner AC scores more

45%

level

24%

Mauerwerk scores more

31%

Favoritner AC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff