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Mauaense vs Manthiqueira — Paulista Série B 2026

Mauaense
Mauaense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
W. Crysantho 90+2'
Breno Liborge 73'
Kleber 53'
Davi 39'
5/3/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mauaense60%
×Draw21%
Manthiqueira19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauaense
2.08
Manthiqueira
1.10

Mauaense creates 89% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mauaense
1.50
Manthiqueira
1.35

allows per match

Mauaense
0.85
Manthiqueira
2.65

finishing

Mauaense+0.00on par
Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense ↓

Manthiqueira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mauaense or draw
81%
Mauaense or Manthiqueira
79%
Draw or Manthiqueira
40%

Winning margin

Mauaense wins by 2+
36%
Manthiqueira wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mauaense 1+ goals
87%
Mauaense 2+ goals
61%
Mauaense 3+ goals
34%
Manthiqueira 1+ goals
67%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
30%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mauaense (draw refunded)
75%
Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Manthiqueira away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense attack 1.50 + Manthiqueira defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.08

Manthiqueira attack 1.35 + Mauaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mauaense scores more
60%
level
21%
Manthiqueira scores more
19%

Mauaense at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mauaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Davi
53'
Kleber
73'
Breno Liborge
90+2'
W. Crysantho
90+4'
A. Leite

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Mauaense 4–0 Manthiqueira

Mauaense beat Manthiqueira 4-0 in Paulista Série B on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Davi (39'), Kleber (53'), Breno Liborge (73'), W. Crysantho (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.