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Manthiqueira vs Mauaense — Paulista Série B 2026

Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Mauaense
Mauaense
A. Vinicius 57', 7'
K. F. Andrade Zapparoli 45+1'
R. Alves 15'
Thiago Passos 84'
G. Prachedes 73'
6/22/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Manthiqueira39%
×Draw26%
Mauaense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manthiqueira
1.34
Mauaense
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Manthiqueira
1.28
Mauaense
0.95

allows per match

Manthiqueira
1.56
Mauaense
1.40

finishing

Manthiqueira+0.00on par
Mauaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manthiqueira ↓

Mauaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Manthiqueira or draw
65%
Manthiqueira or Mauaense
74%
Draw or Mauaense
61%

Winning margin

Manthiqueira wins by 2+
18%
Mauaense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Manthiqueira 1+ goals
74%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
39%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
15%
Mauaense 1+ goals
71%
Mauaense 2+ goals
36%
Mauaense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
53%
Mauaense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manthiqueira at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Mauaense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manthiqueira attack 1.28 + Mauaense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mauaense attack 0.95 + Manthiqueira defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manthiqueira scores more
39%
level
26%
Mauaense scores more
35%

Manthiqueira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manthiqueira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Vinicius
15'
R. Alves
45+1'
K. F. Andrade Zapparoli
57'
A. Vinicius
73'
G. Prachedes
84'
Thiago Passos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manthiqueira vs Mauaense

Manthiqueira beat Mauaense 4-2 in Paulista Série B on June 22, 2024.

Goals: A. Vinicius (7', 57'), R. Alves (15'), K. F. Andrade Zapparoli (45+1'), G. Prachedes (73'), Thiago Passos (84').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.