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Mauaense vs Colorado Caieiras — Paulista Série B 2026

Mauaense
Mauaense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colorado Caieiras
Colorado Caieiras
Andrei 24'
7/20/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Mauaense48%
×Draw29%
Colorado Caieiras24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mauaense
1.30
Colorado Caieiras
0.82

Mauaense creates 59% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mauaense
1.50
Colorado Caieiras
0.80

allows per match

Mauaense
0.85
Colorado Caieiras
1.10

finishing

Mauaense+0.00on par
Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense ↓

Colorado Caieiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mauaense or draw
76%
Mauaense or Colorado Caieiras
71%
Draw or Colorado Caieiras
52%

Winning margin

Mauaense wins by 2+
22%
Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mauaense 1+ goals
73%
Mauaense 2+ goals
37%
Mauaense 3+ goals
14%
Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals
56%
Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals
20%
Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mauaense (draw refunded)
67%
Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Colorado Caieiras away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense attack 1.50 + Colorado Caieiras defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Colorado Caieiras attack 0.80 + Mauaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mauaense scores more
48%
level
29%
Colorado Caieiras scores more
24%

Mauaense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mauaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Andrei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Mauaense 0–1 Colorado Caieiras

Colorado Caieiras beat Mauaense 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Andrei (24').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.