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Colorado Caieiras vs Mauaense — Paulista Série B 2026

Colorado Caieiras
Colorado Caieiras
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mauaense
Mauaense
J. Vitor 42'
7/13/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Carlos Ferracini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Colorado Caieiras45%
×Draw30%
Mauaense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Caieiras
1.20
Mauaense
0.82

Colorado Caieiras creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Colorado Caieiras
1.00
Mauaense
0.95

allows per match

Colorado Caieiras
0.70
Mauaense
1.40

finishing

Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par
Mauaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Caieiras ↓

Mauaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Colorado Caieiras or draw
75%
Colorado Caieiras or Mauaense
70%
Draw or Mauaense
55%

Winning margin

Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+
20%
Mauaense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals
70%
Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals
34%
Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals
12%
Mauaense 1+ goals
56%
Mauaense 2+ goals
20%
Mauaense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)
64%
Mauaense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Caieiras at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Mauaense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Caieiras attack 1.00 + Mauaense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mauaense attack 0.95 + Colorado Caieiras defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colorado Caieiras scores more
45%
level
30%
Mauaense scores more
25%

Colorado Caieiras at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colorado Caieiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
J. Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Caieiras vs Mauaense

Mauaense beat Colorado Caieiras 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 13, 2024.

Goals: J. Vitor (42').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Carlos Ferracini in Caieiras, São Paulo.