Mauaense 4–0 Atletico Mogi: Result & Stats

Mauaense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Atletico Mogi

Diego Baiano 47'

Deivisson 42', 22'

L. Cruz 11' (pen)

6/15/2024

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mauaense65%

×Draw24%

Atletico Mogi12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MauaenseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Mogi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.53

Mauaense

1.65

Atletico Mogi

0.53

Mauaense creates 211% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

0.20

0.85

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Mauaense

1.50

Atletico Mogi

0.20

allows per match

Mauaense

0.85

Atletico Mogi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mauaense+0.00on par

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mauaense ↓

Atletico Mogi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mauaense or draw

88%

Mauaense or Atletico Mogi

76%

Draw or Atletico Mogi

35%

Winning margin

Mauaense wins by 2+

37%

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mauaense 1+ goals

81%

Mauaense 2+ goals

49%

Mauaense 3+ goals

23%

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals

41%

Atletico Mogi 2+ goals

10%

Atletico Mogi 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mauaense (draw refunded)

85%

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mauaense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Atletico Mogi away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mauaense attack 1.50 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atletico Mogi attack 0.20 + Mauaense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mauaense scores more

65%

level

24%

Atletico Mogi scores more

12%

Mauaense at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mauaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. CruzPenalty

22'

Deivisson

42'

Deivisson

47'

Diego Baiano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff