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Atletico Mogi vs Mauaense — Paulista Série B 2026

Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mauaense
Mauaense
5/11/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Mogi38%
×Draw25%
Mauaense37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Mogi
1.40
Mauaense
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atletico Mogi
1.40
Mauaense
0.95

allows per match

Atletico Mogi
1.80
Mauaense
1.40

finishing

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par
Mauaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mogi ↓

Mauaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atletico Mogi or draw
63%
Atletico Mogi or Mauaense
75%
Draw or Mauaense
62%

Winning margin

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
17%
Mauaense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
17%
Mauaense 1+ goals
75%
Mauaense 2+ goals
40%
Mauaense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
51%
Mauaense (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mogi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Mauaense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mogi attack 1.40 + Mauaense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mauaense attack 0.95 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Mogi scores more
38%
level
25%
Mauaense scores more
37%

Atletico Mogi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Mogi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Atletico Mogi 0–0 Mauaense

Atletico Mogi and Mauaense drew 0-0 in Paulista Série B on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.