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Maua vs Itaquá Athletico Clube — Paulista Série B 2026

Maua
Maua
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Itaquá Athletico Clube
Itaquá Athletico Clube
Matheus Silva 90'
G. Araujo 21'
5/9/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Maua27%
×Draw25%
Itaquá Athletico Clube47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maua
1.11
Itaquá Athletico Clube
1.54

Itaquá Athletico Clube creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Maua
1.36
Itaquá Athletico Clube
2.14

allows per match

Maua
0.95
Itaquá Athletico Clube
0.86

finishing

Maua+0.00on par
Itaquá Athletico Clube+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maua ↓

Itaquá Athletico Clube →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maua or draw
53%
Maua or Itaquá Athletico Clube
75%
Draw or Itaquá Athletico Clube
73%

Winning margin

Maua wins by 2+
11%
Itaquá Athletico Clube wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Maua 1+ goals
67%
Maua 2+ goals
30%
Maua 3+ goals
10%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 1+ goals
79%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 2+ goals
45%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Maua (draw refunded)
37%
Itaquá Athletico Clube (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maua at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Itaquá Athletico Clube away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maua attack 1.36 + Itaquá Athletico Clube defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Itaquá Athletico Clube attack 2.14 + Maua defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maua scores more
27%
level
25%
Itaquá Athletico Clube scores more
47%

Itaquá Athletico Clube at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Itaquá Athletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
G. Araujo
90'
Matheus Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maua vs Itaquá Athletico Clube

Maua and Itaquá Athletico Clube drew 1-1 in Paulista Série B on May 9, 2026.

Goals: G. Araujo (21'), Matheus Silva (90').