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Itaquá Athletico Clube vs Maua — Paulista Série B 2026

Itaquá Athletico Clube
Itaquá Athletico Clube
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Maua
Maua
Unknown 79', 38', 29', 10', 5'
Unknown 45+12'
6/14/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Itaquá Athletico Clube63%
×Draw21%
Maua16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaquá Athletico Clube
1.94
Maua
0.85

Itaquá Athletico Clube creates 128% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

Itaquá Athletico Clube
2.43
Maua
1.41

allows per match

Itaquá Athletico Clube
0.29
Maua
1.45

finishing

Itaquá Athletico Clube+0.00on par
Maua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaquá Athletico Clube ↓

Maua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Itaquá Athletico Clube or draw
84%
Itaquá Athletico Clube or Maua
79%
Draw or Maua
37%

Winning margin

Itaquá Athletico Clube wins by 2+
38%
Maua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Itaquá Athletico Clube 1+ goals
86%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 2+ goals
58%
Itaquá Athletico Clube 3+ goals
30%
Maua 1+ goals
57%
Maua 2+ goals
21%
Maua 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Itaquá Athletico Clube (draw refunded)
80%
Maua (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaquá Athletico Clube at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Maua away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaquá Athletico Clube attack 2.43 + Maua defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.94

Maua attack 1.41 + Itaquá Athletico Clube defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Itaquá Athletico Clube scores more
63%
level
21%
Maua scores more
16%

Itaquá Athletico Clube at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Itaquá Athletico Clube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
10'
29'
38'
42'
42'
42'
45+12'
79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itaquá Athletico Clube vs Maua

Itaquá Athletico Clube beat Maua 5-1 in Paulista Série B on June 14, 2026.

Goals: ? (5', 10', 29', 38', 45+12', 79').