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Maua vs Guarulhos — Paulista Série B 2026

Maua
Maua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guarulhos
Guarulhos
Kaynan 90+3'
Gustavinho 90+4'
Italo 59'
6/28/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Maua42%
×Draw24%
Guarulhos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maua
1.60
Guarulhos
1.39

Maua creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

Maua
1.36
Guarulhos
1.83

allows per match

Maua
0.95
Guarulhos
1.83

finishing

Maua+0.00on par
Guarulhos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maua ↓

Guarulhos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maua or draw
67%
Maua or Guarulhos
76%
Draw or Guarulhos
58%

Winning margin

Maua wins by 2+
21%
Guarulhos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maua 1+ goals
80%
Maua 2+ goals
47%
Maua 3+ goals
22%
Guarulhos 1+ goals
75%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
40%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Maua (draw refunded)
56%
Guarulhos (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maua at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Guarulhos away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maua attack 1.36 + Guarulhos defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Guarulhos attack 1.83 + Maua defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maua scores more
42%
level
24%
Guarulhos scores more
33%

Maua at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
Italo
90+3'
Kaynan
90+4'
Gustavinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maua vs Guarulhos

Guarulhos beat Maua 2-1 in Paulista Série B on June 28, 2025.

Goals: Italo (59'), Kaynan (90+3'), Gustavinho (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti in Mauá, São Paulo.