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Guarulhos vs Maua — Paulista Série B 2026

Guarulhos
Guarulhos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maua
Maua
Unknown 16'
8/2/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guarulhos39%
×Draw26%
Maua36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarulhos
1.39
Maua
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Guarulhos
1.33
Maua
1.41

allows per match

Guarulhos
1.25
Maua
1.45

finishing

Guarulhos+0.00on par
Maua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos ↓

Maua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Guarulhos or draw
64%
Guarulhos or Maua
74%
Draw or Maua
61%

Winning margin

Guarulhos wins by 2+
18%
Maua wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guarulhos 1+ goals
75%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
40%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
16%
Maua 1+ goals
74%
Maua 2+ goals
38%
Maua 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos (draw refunded)
52%
Maua (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Maua away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos attack 1.33 + Maua defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Maua attack 1.41 + Guarulhos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guarulhos scores more
39%
level
26%
Maua scores more
36%

Guarulhos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guarulhos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Guarulhos 0–1 Maua

Maua beat Guarulhos 1-0 in Paulista Série B on August 2, 2025.

Goals: ? (16').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.