Maua 0–1 Flamengo SP: Result & Stats

Maua

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo SP

Unknown 15'

8/3/2024

Paulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Maua36%

×Draw28%

Flamengo SP36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MauaExpected goals in this matchFlamengo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

Maua

1.16

Flamengo SP

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

1.37

0.95

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Maua

1.36

Flamengo SP

1.37

allows per match

Maua

0.95

Flamengo SP

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maua+0.00on par

Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maua ↓

Flamengo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Maua or draw

64%

Maua or Flamengo SP

72%

Draw or Flamengo SP

64%

Winning margin

Maua wins by 2+

15%

Flamengo SP wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Maua 1+ goals

69%

Maua 2+ goals

32%

Maua 3+ goals

11%

Flamengo SP 1+ goals

69%

Flamengo SP 2+ goals

32%

Flamengo SP 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Maua (draw refunded)

50%

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maua at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maua attack 1.36 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Maua defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Maua scores more

36%

level

28%

Flamengo SP scores more

36%

Maua at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Maua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff