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Flamengo SP vs Maua — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Maua
Maua
Unknown 54'
Junior 10'
Luiz Felipe 38'
M. Henrique 36'
6/30/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Flamengo SP47%
×Draw25%
Maua28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.59
Maua
1.15

Flamengo SP creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Maua
1.41

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Maua
1.45

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Maua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Maua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
72%
Flamengo SP or Maua
75%
Draw or Maua
53%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
24%
Maua wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
80%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
47%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
21%
Maua 1+ goals
68%
Maua 2+ goals
32%
Maua 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
63%
Maua (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Maua away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Maua defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Maua attack 1.41 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
47%
level
25%
Maua scores more
28%

Flamengo SP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Junior
36'
M. Henrique
38'
Luiz Felipe
54'
60'
Rodrigo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP vs Maua

Flamengo SP and Maua drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on June 30, 2024.

Goals: Junior (10'), M. Henrique (36'), Luiz Felipe (38'), ? (54').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.