Maua 1–0 Atletico Mogi: Result & Stats

Maua

FT

1 – 0

Atletico Mogi

5/25/2024

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Pedro Benedetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maua62%

×Draw25%

Atletico Mogi13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MauaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Mogi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.57

Maua

1.58

Atletico Mogi

0.57

Maua creates 177% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

1.36

creates per match

0.20

0.95

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Maua

1.36

Atletico Mogi

0.20

allows per match

Maua

0.95

Atletico Mogi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maua+0.00on par

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maua ↓

Atletico Mogi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Maua or draw

87%

Maua or Atletico Mogi

75%

Draw or Atletico Mogi

38%

Winning margin

Maua wins by 2+

34%

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Maua 1+ goals

79%

Maua 2+ goals

47%

Maua 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals

43%

Atletico Mogi 2+ goals

11%

Atletico Mogi 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Maua (draw refunded)

82%

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maua at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Atletico Mogi away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maua attack 1.36 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Atletico Mogi attack 0.20 + Maua defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Maua scores more

62%

level

25%

Atletico Mogi scores more

13%

Maua at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Maua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff