Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Mogi vs Maua — Paulista Série B 2026

Atletico Mogi
Atletico Mogi
FT
2 – 2
Maua
Maua
4/20/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Mogi34%
×Draw24%
Maua42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Mogi
1.42
Maua
1.60

Maua creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Atletico Mogi
1.40
Maua
1.41

allows per match

Atletico Mogi
1.80
Maua
1.45

finishing

Atletico Mogi+0.00on par
Maua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Mogi ↓

Maua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Atletico Mogi or draw
58%
Atletico Mogi or Maua
76%
Draw or Maua
66%

Winning margin

Atletico Mogi wins by 2+
16%
Maua wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Atletico Mogi 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Mogi 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Mogi 3+ goals
17%
Maua 1+ goals
80%
Maua 2+ goals
47%
Maua 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Atletico Mogi (draw refunded)
45%
Maua (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Mogi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Maua away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Mogi attack 1.40 + Maua defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Maua attack 1.41 + Atletico Mogi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atletico Mogi scores more
34%
level
24%
Maua scores more
42%

Maua at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Atletico Mogi 2–2 Maua

Atletico Mogi and Maua drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira in Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo.