Matonense 3–1 Grêmio Catanduvense: Result & Stats

Matonense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grêmio Catanduvense

Leander 90'

Di Santo 59'

Kaua 47'

Guilherme Silva 75'

5/9/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Matonense91%

×Draw6%

Grêmio Catanduvense3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MatonenseExpected goals in this matchGrêmio Catanduvense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.17

0.70

Matonense

4.17

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.70

Matonense creates 496% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.14

creates per match

0.40

1.00

allows per match

7.20

creates per match

Matonense

1.14

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.40

allows per match

Matonense

1.00

Grêmio Catanduvense

7.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matonense+0.00on par

Grêmio Catanduvense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matonense ↓

Grêmio Catanduvense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Matonense or draw

97%

Matonense or Grêmio Catanduvense

94%

Draw or Grêmio Catanduvense

9%

Winning margin

Matonense wins by 2+

79%

Grêmio Catanduvense wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Matonense 1+ goals

98%

Matonense 2+ goals

91%

Matonense 3+ goals

75%

Grêmio Catanduvense 1+ goals

50%

Grêmio Catanduvense 2+ goals

16%

Grêmio Catanduvense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Matonense (draw refunded)

97%

Grêmio Catanduvense (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matonense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Grêmio Catanduvense away — creates 0.40, concedes 7.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matonense attack 1.14 + Grêmio Catanduvense defence 7.20 → ÷2 → 4.17

Grêmio Catanduvense attack 0.40 + Matonense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Matonense scores more

91%

level

6%

Grêmio Catanduvense scores more

3%

Matonense at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Matonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

Kaua

59'

Di Santo

75'

Guilherme Silva

90+4'

90'

Leander

Matonense

Grêmio

Manager: Paulo Cezar Catanoce

Manager: Rodrigo Deião