Grêmio Catanduvense 0–13 Matonense: Result & Stats

Grêmio Catanduvense

FT

0 – 13

HT: 0 – 8

Matonense

6/14/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Grêmio Catanduvense2%

×Draw5%

Matonense93%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grêmio CatanduvenseExpected goals in this matchMatonense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

4.57

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.70

Matonense

4.57

Matonense creates 553% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.40

creates per match

3.14

6.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.40

Matonense

3.14

allows per match

Grêmio Catanduvense

6.00

Matonense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grêmio Catanduvense+0.00on par

Matonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Catanduvense ↓

Matonense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–27%

0–310%

0–411%

1

1–00%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Grêmio Catanduvense or draw

7%

Grêmio Catanduvense or Matonense

95%

Draw or Matonense

98%

Winning margin

Grêmio Catanduvense wins by 2+

0%

Matonense wins by 2+

82%

Team goals

Grêmio Catanduvense 1+ goals

50%

Grêmio Catanduvense 2+ goals

16%

Grêmio Catanduvense 3+ goals

3%

Matonense 1+ goals

99%

Matonense 2+ goals

93%

Matonense 3+ goals

80%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Catanduvense (draw refunded)

2%

Matonense (draw refunded)

98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Catanduvense at home — creates 0.40, concedes 6.00 · 5 matches

Matonense away — creates 3.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Catanduvense attack 0.40 + Matonense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Matonense attack 3.14 + Grêmio Catanduvense defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Grêmio Catanduvense scores more

2%

level

5%

Matonense scores more

93%

Matonense at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Matonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff