Matonense 0–1 Flamengo SP: Result & Stats

Matonense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo SP

Unknown 34'

7/11/2026

Paulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Matonense32%

×Draw29%

Flamengo SP39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MatonenseExpected goals in this matchFlamengo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.19

Matonense

1.04

Flamengo SP

1.19

Flamengo SP creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

1.37

1.00

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Matonense

1.14

Flamengo SP

1.37

allows per match

Matonense

1.00

Flamengo SP

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Matonense+0.00on par

Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matonense ↓

Flamengo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Matonense or draw

61%

Matonense or Flamengo SP

71%

Draw or Flamengo SP

68%

Winning margin

Matonense wins by 2+

12%

Flamengo SP wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Matonense 1+ goals

65%

Matonense 2+ goals

28%

Matonense 3+ goals

9%

Flamengo SP 1+ goals

70%

Flamengo SP 2+ goals

33%

Flamengo SP 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Matonense (draw refunded)

45%

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matonense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matonense attack 1.14 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Matonense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Matonense scores more

32%

level

29%

Flamengo SP scores more

39%

Flamengo SP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff