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Flamengo SP vs Matonense — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SPadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Matonense
Matonense
Unknown 90', 56', 45+4'
Unknown 40'
7/18/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Flamengo SP26%
×Draw22%
Matonense52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.37
Matonense
2.02

Matonense creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Matonense
3.14

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Matonense
1.00

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Matonense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Matonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
48%
Flamengo SP or Matonense
78%
Draw or Matonense
74%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
11%
Matonense wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
75%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
40%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
16%
Matonense 1+ goals
87%
Matonense 2+ goals
60%
Matonense 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
33%
Matonense (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Matonense away — creates 3.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Matonense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Matonense attack 3.14 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
26%
level
22%
Matonense scores more
52%

Matonense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Matonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
45+4'
56'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flamengo SP 3 – 1 Matonense

Flamengo SP beat Matonense 3-1 in Paulista Série B on July 18, 2026.

Goals: ? (40', 45+4', 56', 90').