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Mathare United vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
3/23/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mathare United62%
×Draw25%
Luanda Villa13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.57
Luanda Villa
0.55

Mathare United creates 185% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.84
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Mathare United
0.47
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
87%
Mathare United or Luanda Villa
75%
Draw or Luanda Villa
38%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
34%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
79%
Mathare United 2+ goals
46%
Mathare United 3+ goals
21%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
42%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
11%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
83%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.84 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.57

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Mathare United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mathare United scores more
62%
level
25%
Luanda Villa scores more
13%

Mathare United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mathare United vs Luanda Villa

Mathare United beat Luanda Villa 1-0 in Super League on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.