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Luanda Villa vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mathare United
Mathare United
2/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luanda Villa42%
×Draw27%
Mathare United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.35
Mathare United
1.13

Luanda Villa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
69%
Luanda Villa or Mathare United
73%
Draw or Mathare United
58%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
19%
Mathare United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
74%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
39%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
15%
Mathare United 1+ goals
68%
Mathare United 2+ goals
31%
Mathare United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
57%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
42%
level
27%
Mathare United scores more
31%

Luanda Villa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luanda Villa vs Mathare United

Luanda Villa beat Mathare United 1-0 in Super League on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.