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Mathare United vs Kisumu All Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
4 – 1
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
3/7/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 24Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mathare United62%
×Draw21%
Kisumu All Stars17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.97
Kisumu All Stars
0.91

Mathare United creates 116% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.13
Kisumu All Stars
0.55

allows per match

Mathare United
1.26
Kisumu All Stars
2.82

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
83%
Mathare United or Kisumu All Stars
79%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
38%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
37%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
86%
Mathare United 2+ goals
58%
Mathare United 3+ goals
31%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
60%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
23%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
79%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 126 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.13 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.97

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Mathare United defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mathare United scores more
62%
level
21%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
17%

Mathare United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mathare United vs Kisumu All Stars

Mathare United beat Kisumu All Stars 4-1 in FKF Premier League on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.