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Kisumu All Stars vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mathare United
Mathare United
1/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kisumu All Stars41%
×Draw28%
Mathare United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.30
Mathare United
1.09

Kisumu All Stars creates 19% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.39
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.82
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
69%
Kisumu All Stars or Mathare United
72%
Draw or Mathare United
59%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
19%
Mathare United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
73%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
37%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
14%
Mathare United 1+ goals
66%
Mathare United 2+ goals
30%
Mathare United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
57%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
41%
level
28%
Mathare United scores more
31%

Kisumu All Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisumu All Stars vs Mathare United

Kisumu All Stars and Mathare United drew 0-0 in Super League on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.