Mathare United vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 55+ matches
Mathare United44%
Chemelil Sugar27%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mathare United creates 38% more chances
Season form · 123 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mathare United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mathare United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 123 matches
Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mathare United attack 1.12 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27
Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Mathare United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Mathare United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
GOR Mahia
AFC Leopards
Police
Nairobi United
Shabana
Homeboyz
KCB
Tusker
APS Bomet
Mara Sugar
Bandari
Murang'a SEAL
Ulinzi StarsMathare United
Posta Rangers FC
Kariobangi Sharks
Bidco United
Sofapaka
NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mathare United host Chemelil Sugar on Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Mathare United vs Chemelil Sugar — Match Preview
Mathare United face Chemelil Sugar on March 22, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Mathare United host Chemelil Sugar at Moi International Sports Centre.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.