Chemelil Sugar vs Mathare United — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 57+ matches
Chemelil Sugar39%
Mathare United32%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chemelil Sugar creates 13% more chances
Season form · 57 home / 128 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chemelil Sugar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches
Mathare United away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 128 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Mathare United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.18
Mathare United attack 0.98 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Chemelil Sugar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
GOR Mahia
AFC Leopards
Police
Nairobi United
Shabana
Homeboyz
KCB
Tusker
APS Bomet
Mara Sugar
Bandari
Murang'a SEAL
Ulinzi StarsMathare United
Posta Rangers FC
Kariobangi Sharks
Bidco United
Sofapaka
NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chemelil Sugar host Mathare United on Sunday, 24 November 2019 at 11:00. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
FKF Premier League: Chemelil Sugar 1–4 Mathare United
Mathare United beat Chemelil Sugar 4-1 in FKF Premier League on November 24, 2019.
The match was played at Chemelil Sports Complex in Chemelil.