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Mathare United vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 0
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
3/30/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 8Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mathare United45%
×Draw28%
Chemelil Sugar27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.31
Chemelil Sugar
0.93

Mathare United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 48 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.12
Chemelil Sugar
0.58

allows per match

Mathare United
1.27
Chemelil Sugar
1.50

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
73%
Mathare United or Chemelil Sugar
72%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
55%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
21%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
73%
Mathare United 2+ goals
38%
Mathare United 3+ goals
14%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
61%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
24%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
63%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 123 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.12 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.58 + Mathare United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mathare United scores more
45%
level
28%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
27%

Mathare United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mathare United vs Chemelil Sugar

Mathare United beat Chemelil Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on March 30, 2018.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).