Mathare United 3–0 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Mathare United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bidco United

Unknown 67', 52'

J. Makwata 13'

4/18/2026

FKF Premier League · Round 28Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mathare United44%

×Draw30%

Bidco United26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mathare UnitedExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.85

Mathare United

1.19

Bidco United

0.85

Mathare United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

1.12

creates per match

0.65

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Mathare United

1.12

Bidco United

0.65

allows per match

Mathare United

1.06

Bidco United

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw

74%

Mathare United or Bidco United

70%

Draw or Bidco United

56%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+

19%

Bidco United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals

70%

Mathare United 2+ goals

33%

Mathare United 3+ goals

12%

Bidco United 1+ goals

57%

Bidco United 2+ goals

21%

Bidco United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)

63%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.12 + Bidco United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bidco United attack 0.65 + Mathare United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mathare United scores more

44%

level

30%

Bidco United scores more

26%

Mathare United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Makwata

52'

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff