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Mathare United vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
C. Koloti 24'
10/18/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mathare United39%
×Draw31%
Bidco United30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.06
Bidco United
0.90

Mathare United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.05
Bidco United
0.69

allows per match

Mathare United
1.11
Bidco United
1.06

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
70%
Mathare United or Bidco United
69%
Draw or Bidco United
61%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
15%
Bidco United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
65%
Mathare United 2+ goals
29%
Mathare United 3+ goals
9%
Bidco United 1+ goals
59%
Bidco United 2+ goals
23%
Bidco United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
56%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.05 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bidco United attack 0.69 + Mathare United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mathare United scores more
39%
level
31%
Bidco United scores more
30%

Mathare United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
C. Koloti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Mathare United 1–0 Bidco United

Mathare United beat Bidco United 1-0 in FKF Premier League on October 18, 2024.

Goals: C. Koloti (24').

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.