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Mátészalka vs Karcag SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mátészalka
Mátészalka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karcag SE
Karcag SE
3/30/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 22Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mátészalka22%
×Draw26%
Karcag SE52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mátészalka
0.87
Karcag SE
1.50

Karcag SE creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mátészalka
0.47
Karcag SE
1.41

allows per match

Mátészalka
1.60
Karcag SE
1.27

finishing

Mátészalka+0.00on par
Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mátészalka ↓

Karcag SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mátészalka or draw
48%
Mátészalka or Karcag SE
74%
Draw or Karcag SE
78%

Winning margin

Mátészalka wins by 2+
7%
Karcag SE wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mátészalka 1+ goals
58%
Mátészalka 2+ goals
22%
Mátészalka 3+ goals
6%
Karcag SE 1+ goals
78%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
44%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mátészalka (draw refunded)
30%
Karcag SE (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mátészalka at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mátészalka attack 0.47 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.87

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Mátészalka defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mátészalka scores more
22%
level
26%
Karcag SE scores more
52%

Karcag SE at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mátészalka vs Karcag SE

Karcag SE beat Mátészalka 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Mátészalkai Városi sporttelep in Mátészalka.