Karcag SE 4–0 Mátészalka: Result & Stats

Karcag SE

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Mátészalka

9/8/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 7Ligeti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karcag SE59%

×Draw22%

Mátészalka20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karcag SEExpected goals in this matchMátészalka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.04

Karcag SE

1.96

Mátészalka

1.04

Karcag SE creates 88% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 15 away

1.98

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Karcag SE

1.98

Mátészalka

1.00

allows per match

Karcag SE

1.08

Mátészalka

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Mátészalka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Mátészalka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw

80%

Karcag SE or Mátészalka

78%

Draw or Mátészalka

41%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+

35%

Mátészalka wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals

86%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

58%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

31%

Mátészalka 1+ goals

65%

Mátészalka 2+ goals

28%

Mátészalka 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

75%

Mátészalka (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Mátészalka away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Mátészalka defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Mátészalka attack 1.00 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Karcag SE scores more

59%

level

22%

Mátészalka scores more

20%

Karcag SE at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff