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Matelots vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
CANC
00:00
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
4/19/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots32%
×Draw25%
Leopard de Douala43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
1.25
Leopard de Douala
1.49

Leopard de Douala creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
57%
Matelots or Leopard de Douala
75%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
68%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
13%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
71%
Matelots 2+ goals
36%
Matelots 3+ goals
13%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
77%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
44%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
43%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Matelots scores more
32%
level
25%
Leopard de Douala scores more
43%

Leopard de Douala at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matelots vs Leopard de Douala — Match Preview

Matelots face Leopard de Douala on April 19, 2022 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.