Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leopard de Douala vs Matelots — Elite Two 2020

Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
CANC
00:00
Matelots
Matelots
6/11/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Leopard de Douala60%
×Draw21%
Matelots18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leopard de Douala
1.97
Matelots
0.98

Leopard de Douala creates 101% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

creates per match

Leopard de Douala
1.10
Matelots
0.67

allows per match

Leopard de Douala
1.28
Matelots
2.83

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par
Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Matelots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw
82%
Leopard de Douala or Matelots
79%
Draw or Matelots
40%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
36%
Matelots wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
86%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
58%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
31%
Matelots 1+ goals
62%
Matelots 2+ goals
26%
Matelots 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
77%
Matelots (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.97

Matelots attack 0.67 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more
60%
level
21%
Matelots scores more
18%

Leopard de Douala at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Leopard de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leopard de Douala host Matelots

June 11, 2022: Leopard de Douala take on Matelots in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.