Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Matelots vs Lausanne — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
CANC
00:00
Lausanne
Lausanne
5/3/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots14%
×Draw22%
Lausanne64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
0.71
Lausanne
1.83

Lausanne creates 158% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Lausanne
1.33

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Lausanne
0.75

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Lausanne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
36%
Matelots or Lausanne
78%
Draw or Lausanne
86%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
4%
Lausanne wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
51%
Matelots 2+ goals
16%
Matelots 3+ goals
4%
Lausanne 1+ goals
84%
Lausanne 2+ goals
54%
Lausanne 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
18%
Lausanne (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Lausanne defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Lausanne attack 1.33 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Matelots scores more
14%
level
22%
Lausanne scores more
64%

Lausanne at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Matelots host Lausanne

May 3, 2022: Matelots take on Lausanne in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.