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Lausanne vs Matelots — Elite Two 2020

Lausanne
Lausanne
CANC
00:00
Matelots
Matelots
6/25/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lausanne68%
×Draw21%
Matelots11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.92
Matelots
0.63

Lausanne creates 205% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.00
Matelots
0.67

allows per match

Lausanne
0.58
Matelots
2.83

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Matelots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
89%
Lausanne or Matelots
79%
Draw or Matelots
32%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
42%
Matelots wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
85%
Lausanne 2+ goals
57%
Lausanne 3+ goals
30%
Matelots 1+ goals
47%
Matelots 2+ goals
13%
Matelots 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
86%
Matelots (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.00 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Matelots attack 0.67 + Lausanne defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lausanne scores more
68%
level
21%
Matelots scores more
11%

Lausanne at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lausanne host Matelots

June 25, 2022: Lausanne take on Matelots in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.