Masr 1–2 Pyramids FC: Result & Stats

Masr

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pyramids FC

1/29/2020

Premier League · Round 15Cairo Military Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Masr28%

×Draw28%

Pyramids FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasrExpected goals in this matchPyramids FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.31

Masr

0.98

Pyramids FC

1.31

Pyramids FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 129 away

1.02

creates per match

1.61

1.00

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Masr

1.02

Pyramids FC

1.61

allows per match

Masr

1.00

Pyramids FC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masr+0.00on par

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masr ↓

Pyramids FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Masr or draw

56%

Masr or Pyramids FC

72%

Draw or Pyramids FC

72%

Winning margin

Masr wins by 2+

10%

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Masr 1+ goals

62%

Masr 2+ goals

26%

Masr 3+ goals

8%

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

73%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

38%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Masr (draw refunded)

39%

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masr at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masr attack 1.02 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + Masr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Masr scores more

28%

level

28%

Pyramids FC scores more

44%

Pyramids FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff