Masis 0–9 Banants II: Result & Stats | First League

Masis

FT

0 – 9

Banants II

8/13/2019

First League · Round 2Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Masis29%

×Draw19%

Banants II52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasisExpected goals in this matchBanants II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

2.63

Masis

1.97

Banants II

2.63

Banants II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 99 away

2.15

creates per match

1.71

3.54

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Masis

2.15

Banants II

1.71

allows per match

Masis

3.54

Banants II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masis+0.00on par

Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masis ↓

Banants II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Masis or draw

48%

Masis or Banants II

81%

Draw or Banants II

71%

Winning margin

Masis wins by 2+

15%

Banants II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Masis 1+ goals

86%

Masis 2+ goals

58%

Masis 3+ goals

31%

Banants II 1+ goals

93%

Banants II 2+ goals

73%

Banants II 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Masis (draw refunded)

36%

Banants II (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masis at home — creates 2.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masis attack 2.15 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

Banants II attack 1.71 + Masis defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Masis scores more

29%

level

19%

Banants II scores more

52%

Banants II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff