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Banants II vs Masis — First League 2019

Banants II
Banants II
FT
1 – 2
Masis
Masis
2/28/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Banants II58%
×Draw20%
Masis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banants II
2.22
Masis
1.30

Banants II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

creates per match

Banants II
1.88
Masis
1.14

allows per match

Banants II
1.47
Masis
2.57

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par
Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

Masis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Banants II or draw
78%
Banants II or Masis
80%
Draw or Masis
42%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+
36%
Masis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals
89%
Banants II 2+ goals
65%
Banants II 3+ goals
38%
Masis 1+ goals
73%
Masis 2+ goals
37%
Masis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)
73%
Masis (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.22

Masis attack 1.14 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Banants II scores more
58%
level
20%
Masis scores more
22%

Banants II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Banants II 1–2 Masis

Masis beat Banants II 2-1 in First League on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Banants-3 in Yerevan.