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Masis vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

Masis
Masis
CANC
06:00
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
7/18/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Masis51%
×Draw18%
Ani Yerevan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masis
3.04
Ani Yerevan
2.38

Masis creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Masis
2.15
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

Masis
3.54
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

Masis+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masis ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Masis or draw
69%
Masis or Ani Yerevan
82%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
49%

Winning margin

Masis wins by 2+
33%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Masis 1+ goals
95%
Masis 2+ goals
80%
Masis 3+ goals
57%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
91%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
68%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Masis (draw refunded)
62%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masis at home — creates 2.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masis attack 2.15 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.04

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Masis defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Masis scores more
51%
level
18%
Ani Yerevan scores more
31%

Masis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Masis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Masis face Ani Yerevan (First League)

First League returns with Masis hosting Ani Yerevan. Match starts July 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Masis host Ani Yerevan at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.