Ani Yerevan 2–0 Masis: Result & Stats

Ani Yerevan

FT

2 – 0

Masis

12/2/2019

First League · Round 17Pyunik Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ani Yerevan28%

×Draw19%

Masis53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ani YerevanExpected goals in this matchMasis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.46

Ani Yerevan

1.78

Masis

2.46

Masis creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

3.79

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Ani Yerevan

1.00

Masis

1.14

allows per match

Ani Yerevan

3.79

Masis

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ani Yerevan ↓

Masis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Ani Yerevan or draw

47%

Ani Yerevan or Masis

81%

Draw or Masis

72%

Winning margin

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+

14%

Masis wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals

83%

Ani Yerevan 2+ goals

53%

Ani Yerevan 3+ goals

26%

Masis 1+ goals

91%

Masis 2+ goals

70%

Masis 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)

35%

Masis (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ani Yerevan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ani Yerevan attack 1.00 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Masis attack 1.14 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ani Yerevan scores more

28%

level

19%

Masis scores more

53%

Masis at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Masis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff