Mashuk-KMV 2–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk: Result & Stats

Mashuk-KMV

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

9/14/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mashuk-KMV53%

×Draw23%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mashuk-KMVExpected goals in this matchKhimik Dzerzhinsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.11

Mashuk-KMV

1.78

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.11

Mashuk-KMV creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV

1.56

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

1.22

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV

1.00

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw

76%

Mashuk-KMV or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

77%

Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk

47%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+

29%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals

83%

Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals

53%

Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals

26%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals

67%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals

30%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)

69%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.56 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more

53%

level

23%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more

24%

Mashuk-KMV at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff