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Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
11/9/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 17Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk40%
×Draw27%
Mashuk-KMV33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.33
Mashuk-KMV
1.17

Khimik Dzerzhinsk creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.22
Mashuk-KMV
1.00

allows per match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.33
Mashuk-KMV
1.44

finishing

Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimik Dzerzhinsk ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw
67%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk or Mashuk-KMV
73%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
60%

Winning margin

Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
18%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
74%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
38%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
15%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
69%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
33%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
55%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.00 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
40%
level
27%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
33%

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khimik Dzerzhinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Mashuk-KMV

Khimik Dzerzhinsk and Mashuk-KMV drew 2-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Dzerzhinsk.