Mashuk-KMV 0–2 Dinamo Kirov: Result & Stats

Mashuk-KMV

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Kirov

10/25/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 15Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mashuk-KMV46%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Kirov26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mashuk-KMVExpected goals in this matchDinamo Kirov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.92

Mashuk-KMV

1.31

Dinamo Kirov

0.92

Mashuk-KMV creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.06

creates per match

1.22

0.61

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV

1.06

Dinamo Kirov

1.22

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV

0.61

Dinamo Kirov

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Dinamo Kirov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw

74%

Mashuk-KMV or Dinamo Kirov

72%

Draw or Dinamo Kirov

54%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+

21%

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals

73%

Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals

38%

Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

60%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

23%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Dinamo Kirov away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.06 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.22 + Mashuk-KMV defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more

46%

level

28%

Dinamo Kirov scores more

26%

Mashuk-KMV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff