Dinamo Kirov 1–2 Mashuk-KMV: Result & Stats

Dinamo Kirov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mashuk-KMV

8/31/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 7VyatSShOR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Kirov33%

×Draw29%

Mashuk-KMV38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo KirovExpected goals in this matchMashuk-KMV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.14

Dinamo Kirov

1.03

Mashuk-KMV

1.14

Mashuk-KMV creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

1.11

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.00

Mashuk-KMV

1.17

allows per match

Dinamo Kirov

1.11

Mashuk-KMV

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Kirov+0.00on par

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Kirov ↓

Mashuk-KMV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Kirov or draw

62%

Dinamo Kirov or Mashuk-KMV

71%

Draw or Mashuk-KMV

67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Kirov wins by 2+

12%

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Kirov 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo Kirov 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Kirov 3+ goals

9%

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals

68%

Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals

32%

Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Kirov (draw refunded)

46%

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Kirov at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Kirov attack 1.00 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.17 + Dinamo Kirov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Kirov scores more

33%

level

29%

Mashuk-KMV scores more

38%

Mashuk-KMV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff