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Mashuk-KMV vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
11/16/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 18Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Mashuk-KMV47%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Bryansk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
1.48
Dinamo Bryansk
1.06

Mashuk-KMV creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.56
Dinamo Bryansk
1.11

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.39

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
73%
Mashuk-KMV or Dinamo Bryansk
74%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
53%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
77%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
43%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
63%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.56 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
47%
level
26%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
27%

Mashuk-KMV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashuk-KMV vs Dinamo Bryansk

Mashuk-KMV and Dinamo Bryansk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk in Pyatigorsk.