Dinamo Bryansk 1–2 Mashuk-KMV: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mashuk-KMV

D. Osipov 51'

R. Khagur 89'

A. Abazov 57'

7/20/2024

Second League A - Division A Silver · Fall Season Silver - 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk49%

×Draw27%

Mashuk-KMV24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchMashuk-KMV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.92

Dinamo Bryansk

1.42

Mashuk-KMV

0.92

Dinamo Bryansk creates 54% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.39

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.39

Mashuk-KMV

1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.83

Mashuk-KMV

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Mashuk-KMV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

76%

Dinamo Bryansk or Mashuk-KMV

73%

Draw or Mashuk-KMV

51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

24%

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

17%

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals

60%

Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals

23%

Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

67%

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.39 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.00 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

49%

level

27%

Mashuk-KMV scores more

24%

Dinamo Bryansk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

I. Badrtdinov

45+2'

R. Gusengadzhiev

46'

Y. Frolov← A. Novikov

51'

57'

63'

65'

65'

M. Tlekhugov← M. Musaev

69'

D. Pikatov← I. Badrtdinov

77'

S. Torosyan← R. Abduragimov

78'

D. Pikatov

80'

D. Lopatin← A. Shlenkin

83'

T. Topuria← A. Butenko

83'

M. Temishev← A. Abazov

89'

R. Khagur

Dinamo

Mashuk-KMV

30

Saganovic

32

⚽

▼

Abazov

5

Saidov

3

⚽

4

15

21

13

▼

Butenko

7

▼

Abduragim

11

▼

Khutov

23

▼

Musaev

1

Smirnov

26

Mustafin

4

⚽

10

3

18

29

▼

Badrtdino

15

▼

Novikov

9

Khalilov

8

Saygushev

7

▼

Shlenkin

Manager: K. Sineokov

46'▲Y. Frolov←▼A. Novikov

69'▲D. Pikatov←▼I. Badrtdinov

80'▲D. Lopatin←▼A. Shlenkin

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

21Frolov20Pikatov17Lopatin11Gomanyuk12Berliyan13Ermakov16Chuvasov28Karpekin

Manager: A. Sadirov

65'▲R. Suanov←▼A. Khutov

65'▲M. Tlekhugov←▼M. Musaev

77'▲S. Torosyan←▼R. Abduragimov

83'▲T. Topuria←▼A. Butenko

83'▲M. Temishev←▼A. Abazov

Mashuk-KMV substitutes

9Suanov57Tlekhugov70Torosyan29Topuria77Temishev22Suvorov33Fedosyuk

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Mashuk-KMV

Mashuk-KMV beat Dinamo Bryansk 2-1 in Second League A - Division A Silver on July 20, 2024.

Goals: D. Osipov (51'), A. Abazov (57'), R. Khagur (89').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League A - Division A Silver 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Mashuk-KMV