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Mashuk-KMV vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
5/29/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 5Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mashuk-KMV58%
×Draw22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashuk-KMV
1.92
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.04

Mashuk-KMV creates 85% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.43
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Mashuk-KMV
1.29
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashuk-KMV ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mashuk-KMV or draw
80%
Mashuk-KMV or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
78%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
42%

Winning margin

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
34%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
85%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
57%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
65%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
28%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
74%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashuk-KMV at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.43 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.92

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mashuk-KMV scores more
58%
level
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
20%

Mashuk-KMV at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Mashuk-KMV 4–2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Mashuk-KMV beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 4-2 in Second League - Group 1 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Central'nyj Stadion Mashuk in Pyatigorsk.