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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
9/18/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Stadion Spartak - Zapasnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II29%
×Draw22%
Mashuk-KMV49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.49
Mashuk-KMV
1.98

Mashuk-KMV creates 33% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Mashuk-KMV
1.18

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Mashuk-KMV
1.86

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
51%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Mashuk-KMV
78%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
71%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
13%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
77%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
44%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
19%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
86%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
59%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
37%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.18 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
29%
level
22%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
49%

Mashuk-KMV at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2–4 Mashuk-KMV

Mashuk-KMV beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 4-2 in Second League - Group 1 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak - Zapasnoe pole in Vladikavkaz.