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Mashujaa vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
12/8/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 13Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mashujaa43%
×Draw32%
Tanzania Prisons25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.08
Tanzania Prisons
0.74

Mashujaa creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 114 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.93
Tanzania Prisons
0.75

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.73
Tanzania Prisons
1.24

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
75%
Mashujaa or Tanzania Prisons
68%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
57%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
18%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
66%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
29%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
10%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
52%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
17%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
64%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.93 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Mashujaa defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mashujaa scores more
43%
level
32%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
25%

Mashujaa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Mashujaa 0–2 Tanzania Prisons

Tanzania Prisons beat Mashujaa 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.