Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mashujaa vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KMC
KMC
M. Vuai 11'
A. Omar 88'
6/18/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mashujaa68%
×Draw24%
KMC8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.56
KMC
0.35

Mashujaa creates 346% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
1.11
KMC
0.13

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.56
KMC
2.00

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
92%
Mashujaa or KMC
76%
Draw or KMC
32%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
38%
KMC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
79%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
46%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
21%
KMC 1+ goals
30%
KMC 2+ goals
5%
KMC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
90%
KMC (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

KMC away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 1.11 + KMC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

KMC attack 0.13 + Mashujaa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mashujaa scores more
68%
level
24%
KMC scores more
8%

Mashujaa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Vuai
88'
A. Omar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Mashujaa 1–1 KMC

Mashujaa and KMC drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Vuai (11'), A. Omar (88').

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.